- DTN Headline News
USDA Reports Summary
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 11:21AM CST

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA increased its forecast for Brazil and Argentina's corn production to 84 million metric tons and 27 mmt, respectively. Both numbers were above the range of pre-report expectations.

Soybean production in Brazil was left unchanged at 100 mmt, while Argentina's production was increased 1.5 mmt to 58.5 mmt.

Domestically, USDA increased corn and soybean ending stocks in February's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which was released at 11 a.m. CT on Tuesday.

USDA's domestic stock estimates should be viewed as bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. The world estimates should be viewed as neutral-to-bearish for corn and bearish for soybeans and wheat, he said.

Crop Production: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA pegged U.S ending stocks at 1.837 billion bushels, up 35 mb from last month. USDA increased its forecast for imports by 10 mb and ethanol by 25 mb. It also trimmed its export forecast by 50 mb.

The domestic ending stocks-to-use ratio increased slightly to 13.6%. USDA left the range of national farm gate prices unchanged at $3.30 to $3.90 per bushels.

Globally, USDA estimated ending stocks at 208.8 mmt, slightly smaller than last month's estimate. The global stocks-to-use estimate held steady at 21.6%.

SOYBEAN

USDA boosted soybean ending stocks by 10 mb to 450 mb. USDA lowered its crush forecast by 10 mb to arrive at the slightly higher stocks figure.

Domestic stocks-to-use, at 12.2%, went up slightly. The range of national average farm gate prices was unchanged at $8.05 to $9.55 per bushels.

Globally, USDA put ending stocks at 80.4 mmt, up about 1.14 mmt from last month. Brazil's production was left unchanged, and most of the growth in ending stocks came from prospects for an improved Argentine harvest.

The stocks-to-use ratio increased to 25.6%.

WHEAT

U.S. wheat ending stocks came in at 966 mb, up 25 mb from last month. USDA arrived at that change by trimming exports by 25 mb. It now forecasts the U.S. will only export 775 mb in 2015-16.

The stocks-to-use ratio for wheat continues its rise and came in at 49.3% compared to 47.5% last month.

Globally, USDA pegged world stocks at 238.87 mmt, up 6.8 mmt, largely because of a 2 mmt increase to China's beginning stocks. World wheat production is forecast to be at a record high.

Global ending stocks-to-use were pegged at 33.6%, up from last month's 32.4% estimate.

ANALYSIS

USDA increased its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015-16 from 1.802 billion to 1.837 billion bushels, which was more than expected. "Tuesday's report should be viewed as bearish for corn," DTN Analyst Todd Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending for 2015-16 was increased from 440 million to 450 million bushels, more than expected. "Tuesday's report should be viewed as bearish for soybeans," Hultman said.

USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 941 million to 966 million bushels, which was more than expected. "Tuesday's U.S. report should be viewed as bearish for wheat," Hultman said.

Meanwhile, on the global side, USDA's estimate of global ending corn stocks for 2015-16 was reduced slightly from 208.94 mmt to 208.81 mmt, but was still more than expected.

USDA's world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2015-16 was increased from 79.28 mmt to 80.42 mmt and was more than expected.

USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2015-16 was increased from 232.04 mmt to 238.87 mmt and was much more than expected.

"Tuesday's world estimates from USDA are neutral-to-bearish for corn and bearish for soybeans and wheat," Hultman said.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (billion bushels)
Feb. Avg High Low Jan. 2014-15
Corn 1.837 1.809 1.852 1.772 1.802 1.731
Soybeans 0.450 0.444 0.475 0.403 0.440 0.191
Sorghum 0.065 0.064 0.066 0.062 0.065 0.018
Wheat 0.966 0.946 0.968 0.930 0.941 0.752
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons)
Feb. Avg High Low Jan. 2014-15
Corn 208.8 208.0 210.0 203.5 208.9 207.2
Soybeans 80.4 79.1 81.0 76.4 79.3 76.9
Wheat 238.9 231.9 234.0 229.7 232.0 212.8
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons)
Feb. Avg High Low Jan. 2014-15
Wheat
Australia 26.0 26.0 23.7
Argentina 11.0 10.5 12.5
Corn
Brazil 84.0 81.6 83.0 80.5 81.5 85.0
Argentina 27.0 25.3 26.0 23.0 25.6 27.0
Soybeans
Brazil 100.0 99.2 101.0 98.0 100.0 96.2
Argentina 58.5 57.1 59.0 56.0 57.0 61.4

(AG)


blog iconDTN Blogs & Forums
DTN Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik
Markets Editor
Monday, February 8, 2016 7:20PM CST
Wednesday, February 3, 2016 5:32PM CST
Monday, February 1, 2016 5:21PM CST
Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
Thursday, February 11, 2016 12:58AM CST
Sunday, February 7, 2016 6:37PM CST
Sunday, February 7, 2016 6:02PM CST
Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst
Friday, February 5, 2016 12:44PM CST
Monday, February 1, 2016 4:52PM CST
Tuesday, January 19, 2016 4:59PM CST
DTN Ag Policy Blog
Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
Wednesday, February 10, 2016 3:14AM CST
Monday, February 8, 2016 10:26PM CST
Friday, February 5, 2016 8:45PM CST
Minding Ag's Business
Marcia Taylor
DTN Executive Editor
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 10:26PM CST
Monday, February 8, 2016 11:13PM CST
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 5:23PM CST
DTN Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson
DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Friday, February 5, 2016 4:25PM CST
Thursday, February 4, 2016 4:13PM CST
Wednesday, February 3, 2016 7:56PM CST
DTN Production Blog
Pam Smith
Crops Technology Editor
Monday, February 8, 2016 9:22PM CST
Wednesday, February 3, 2016 9:57PM CST
Friday, January 29, 2016 6:34PM CST
Harrington's Sort & Cull
John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 10:09PM CST
Friday, January 22, 2016 6:34PM CST
Friday, January 15, 2016 9:32PM CST
South America Calling
Alastair Stewart
South America Correspondent
Friday, January 29, 2016 8:29PM CST
Friday, January 29, 2016 12:32PM CST
Wednesday, January 27, 2016 3:21PM CST
An Urban’s Rural View
Urban Lehner
Editor Emeritus
Tuesday, February 2, 2016 12:00AM CST
Wednesday, January 27, 2016 12:03PM CST
Friday, January 22, 2016 7:16PM CST
Machinery Chatter
Jim Patrico
Progressive Farmer Senior Editor
Monday, February 8, 2016 8:01PM CST
Tuesday, January 26, 2016 10:16PM CST
Thursday, January 21, 2016 4:29PM CST
Canadian Markets
Cliff Jamieson
Canadian Grains Analyst
Wednesday, February 10, 2016 10:50PM CST
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 10:27PM CST
Monday, February 8, 2016 10:31PM CST
Editor’s Notebook
Greg D. Horstmeier
DTN Editor-in-Chief
Thursday, January 21, 2016 8:31PM CST
Thursday, December 31, 2015 7:36PM CST
Friday, November 13, 2015 7:05PM CST
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN