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USDA Reports Flash
Friday, September 30, 2016 2:38PM CDT


By Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
and
Emily Unglesbee
DTN Staff Reporter

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Old-crop stocks for corn and soybeans came in just below the pre-report averages in USDA's end-of-marketing year for both crops.

Corn came in at 1.738 billion bushels while soybean stocks came in at 197 million bushels.

Quarterly wheat stocks, however, came in near the high range of pre-report estimates as USDA also revised several numbers from the 2015-16 production for different wheat classes.

USDA's Grain Stocks estimates were neutral for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. USDA's wheat production estimate was neutral for wheat prices, he said.

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For USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports, visit https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

CORN

Old-crop corn stocks on Sept. 1 totaled 1.738 billion bushels, coming in just under the pre-report average but well within the estimates offered by analysts. Of those stocks, USDA stated farms were storing 627 million bushels, up 6% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were at 1.11 billion bushels, down 2% from a year ago.

The June-August "disappearance" or usage was 2.97 billion bushels, up 8.4% from a year ago, reflecting strong demand for corn in the fourth quarter.

SOYBEANS

Old-crop soybeans in all positions on Sept. 1 totaled 197 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. The soybean stocks were slightly below the average pre-report estimate, but well within range of the estimates offered. On-farm stocks totaled 41.6 million bushels, down 16% from a year. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 155 million bushels, up 10% from a year ago.

The June-August usage was 657 million bushels, up 55% from a year ago. The high volume of usage reflected the poor soybean crop in South America and continued high demand for U.S. exports, especially in China.

WHEAT

All-wheat stored on Sept. 1 totaled 2.527 billion bushels, up 21% from a year ago. The old-crop wheat stocks were near the high end of the pre-report estimates. On-farm stocks were estimated at 726 million bushels, up 12% from last year. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 1.8 billion bushels, up 24% from a year ago.

The June-August disappearance was 758 million bushels, up 6% from the time last year.

All-wheat production totaled 2.31 billion bushels in 2016, up 12% from a revised 2015 total of 2.06 billion bushels. The average 2016 yield was pegged at 52.6 bushels per acre, a record high and up 9 bushels from 2015.

Winter wheat production for 2016 totaled 1.67 billion bushels, up 22% from a revised 2015 total of 1.37 billion bushels.

Hard-red winter wheat totaled 1.08 billion bushels, up 30% from last year due to that record yield.

Soft-red winter production totaled 345 million bushels, down 4% from last year.

Other spring wheat production for 2016 is estimated at 534 million bushels, down 11% from a revised 2015 total of 603 million bushels.

Durum production for 2016 is estimated at 104 million bushels, up 24% from a revised 2015 total of 84 million bushels.

SORGHUM

Old-crop sorghum totaled 36.6 million bushels, up 99% from a year ago. On-farm stocks totaled 3.76 million bushels, up 98% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 32.9 million bushels, up 99% from last year. Still, production and demand for sorghum was reflected in that the June-August disappearance was 53.7 million bushels, up 238% from the same time last year.

QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
(Report date 9/30/16) 9/1/16 Avg High Low 9/1/15 Sep-16
Corn 1,738 1,757 1,862 1,665 1,731 1,716
Soybeans 197 202 256 158 191 195
Grain Sorghum 37 45 51 39 18 35
Wheat 2,527 2,398 2,558 2,100 2,097 NA
SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY (million bushels)
2016-2017 Production 9/30/16 Avg High Low Aug-16 2015-16
All Wheat 2,310 2,326 2,350 2,299 2,321 2,062
Winter 1,672 1,662 1,700 1,629 1,657 1,375
HRW 1,082 1,045 1,060 1,000 1,048 830
SRW 345 371 380 355 372 359
White 245 239 278 223 237 185
Spring 534 571 590 531 571 603
Durum 104 93 95 90 92 84

(AG/CZ)


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