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DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Tuesday, August 25, 2015 8:56AM CDT

By Russ Quinn
DTN Staff Reporter

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the first time in months, retail fertilizer prices are beginning to drift lower, according to retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the third week of August 2015. This comes after some time in which fertilizer retailers predicted prices would fall.

Prices for all eight of the major fertilizers slid compared to a month earlier. Both urea and UAN28 decreased 5% compared to a month earlier. Urea averaged $448 per ton and UAN28 was at $309 per ton.

This marks the first time in four months fertilizer prices moved significantly in either direction. The last time prices moved of any noteworthy amount was the second week of April when 10-34-0 was climbing higher because of acid shortage concerns.

The remaining six fertilizers registered lower prices, but these moves were fairly slight. DAP averaged $568/ton, MAP $587/ton, potash $477/ton, 10-34-0 $611/ton, anhydrous $667/ton and UAN32 $349/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.49/lb.N, anhydrous $0.41/lb.N, UAN28 $0.55/lb.N and UAN32 $0.55/lb.N.

Many retailers feel retail prices should stay steady to maybe move slightly lower in the fall. Rob Fritz, senior agronomist for Hefty Seeds, wrote in the company's Equipment and Fertilizer Gazette, he too believes this is what could happen to retail fertilizer in the coming weeks.

"The fertilizer market is looking to stay the course in the short term, short of something crazy happening in the grain market or supply chains," Fritz wrote last week.

With phosphorus, Fritz believes retail prices could hold steady. This could happen because fertilizer manufacturers could export product to limit domestic supplies if prices shift lower.

Fritz thinks one fertilizer could move more significantly over the next few weeks.

"The only product that we could see some price drops as we go through the fall is potash," he wrote. "Currently we can pick up K at the Twin Cities for $360/ton."

Only one of the eight major fertilizers is double digits higher in price compared to August 2014, all while projected 2016 commodity prices are lower than a year ago. 10-34-0 is still 10% higher compared to last year.

The remaining seven nutrients are now lower compared to retail prices from a year ago. Potash is 1% lower, both MAP and DAP are 3% less expensive, anhydrous is 5% lower, UAN32 is 7% less expensive, UAN28 is down 8% and urea is 13% less expensive than a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer prices in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Aug 18-22 2014 586 607 476 516
Sept 15-19 2014 580 598 475 510
Oct 13-17 2014 583 599 477 508
Nov 10-14 2014 579 598 480 498
Dec 8-12 2014 570 591 481 483
Jan 5-9 2015 566 594 485 464
Feb 2-6 2015 569 597 488 473
Mar 2-6 2015 570 597 489 471
Mar 30-Apr 3 2015 569 598 491 462
Apr 27-May 1 2015 571 598 492 455
May 25-29 2015 570 597 492 459
June 22-26 2015 572 597 490 469
July 20-24 2015 569 594 487 469
Aug 17-21 2015 568 587 477 448
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Aug 18-22 2014 556 699 333 378
Sept 15-19 2014 554 693 329 377
Oct 13-17 2014 557 696 329 372
Nov 10-14 2014 559 720 336 368
Dec 8-12 2014 571 709 323 368
Jan 5-9 2015 577 707 323 364
Feb 2-6 2015 589 707 329 369
Mar 2-6 2015 626 706 331 371
Mar 30-Apr 3 2015 642 708 333 370
Apr 27-May 1 2015 652 711 332 371
May 25-29 2015 650 710 332 371
June 22-26 2015 641 690 330 369
July 20-24 2015 636 689 324 354
Aug 17-21 2015 611 667 309 349

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(AG)


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